NHL 1st Round Preview
What’s this? Josh writing a blog entry? Gotta answer when the master calls…
The overarching theme of the 2006 Stanley Cup playoffs will be whether the league is truly serious about enforcing the new standard for obstruction. Some observers have noted (and some even hailed) a more lax standard on minor off-the-puck stick fouls in the past month, the supporters claiming that those obstruction fouls are irrelevant to the flow of play and only serve to provide needless stoppages and power plays. They’re wrong. Those fouls look minor, yes, but off-the-puck movement is what makes the difference between a structured four-on-three odd-man rush and a two-on-three dump-and-chase.
I’m hardly unbiased, as the Carolina Hurricanes’ success has keyed on the advantage offered to a fast (if less physical), skillful team by the new standards. Carolina is dead in the water whenever they meet New Jersey if Hudson Bay Rules return.
That said, here are my first-round picks.
Eastern Conference
- (1) Ottawa in 6 over (8) Tampa Bay: the Bolts are too inconsistent to survive a best-of-seven, and Ray Emery’s on fire.
- (2) Carolina in 6 over (7) Montreal: the Hurricanes won’t repeat the 4-0 season sweep over the Canadiens without Erik Cole on the top line and José Théodore in the other net. That said, Carolina matches up well in this series: the Habs have neither enough skill to play the Canes’ speed game, nor enough physicality to interrupt it as Washington did at points in the Canes-Capitals late-season five-game set.
- (3) New Jersey in 6 over (6) New York Rangers: to win this series, the Blueshirts need to get their heads about them, and, like the Canes, hope the rules return. I’m pessimistic about both, (a) slightly more than (b). That said, in a tightly-called series, go NYR in 7.
- (5) Philadelphia in 6 over (4) Buffalo: I’m factoring in the rules here too, but I’m more convinced of this one than NJD-NYR. Philadelphia has too much experience to go out in the first round, and Buffalo isn’t quite deep enough for me to like them in this potential bloodbath.
Western Conference
- (1) Detroit in 7 over (8) Edmonton: this call is only slightly influenced by watching the Oilers’ 2-1 second-period lead in Game 1 as I write this. I think Detroit will need a wake-up call in the first round after cruising to the President’s Trophy in the last couple of weeks, but they’re too good to lose to this Oilers team.
- (2) Dallas in 5 over (7) Colorado: not this year, Avs fans, and not with that goaltender. (For that matter, I don’t think Aebischer was the answer either.) Dallas draws a bit of a break here, because Marty Turco’s been shaky himself recently, but nothing like the season-long Théodore disaster or Peter Budaj’s late-season slump.
- (3) Calgary in 6 over (6) Anaheim: Kiprusoff wins this one.
- (5) San Jose in 7 over (4) Nashville: this was the hardest one for me to pick, because I think Nashville will be fine for one round (if not more) with Chris Mason — I just think the Sharks are on too much of a run.