VT-Hoo Preview

Everyone knows the clichés about rivalry games: “records mean nothing,” “you can throw the book away,” and so on. But the reason they keep appearing is that they’re true, and this season’s Virginia Tech-Virginia matchup in Charlottesville (12 noon Saturday, ESPN/XM 192) certainly holds to them, both because of the rivalry and external factors.

When we last saw the Hokies, they got a Singapore-style caning from Miami two weeks ago. Intangible factor #1 for this game is whether the Hokies have recovered mentally. The first score is huge in this game for Tech’s confidence, and a quick strike or non-offensive TD by UVa could be devastating. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Al Groh pull out a trick play early here; in 2003, a fake field goal was the killshot, and both coaches know the psychological importance of the early points to Tech.

Intangible #2 is the play of UVa senior QB Marques Hagans. In terms of importance to his team, he is their Bryan Randall: the team’s unquestioned emotional leader, and not a textbook QB but has developed into being a capable field general, especially in big games. It’s Senior Day in Charlottesville, and Hagans would love to step up and slay the giant that Tech has become (much to Virginia’s dismay). Virginia has played to the level of its opposition all year, and this game shouldn’t be any different.

As for Xs and Os, the biggest area of weakness for either team is UVa’s secondary. Miami was able to bring heavy pressure on Marcus Vick partially because their secondary played nearly-perfect man coverage all game long. Though safety Tony Franklin will return from suspension, Virginia can’t do that, and the confidence game will swing the Hokies’ way if Vick is able to connect on a few mid-range or deep passes early. Conversely, the Cavaliers are OK through the middle with a serviceable line and two world-class ILBs, Kai Parham and Ahmad Brooks (who is recovering from an injury). VT senior RB Cedric Humes is liable to have a tough day if he’s unable to reach the outside quickly, and scatback Mike Imoh is out hurt; Hokie fans have screamed for power-running freshman Branden Ore since a 146-yard performance in the Marshall game, but the coaching staff has been unwilling to trust him with a heavy load as yet. UVa is second-to-last in the ACC against the run, but the VT running game this year has not been able to take advantage of its opponents’ limitations.

On the other side of the ball, Tech will either have to spy or contain Hagans, and it’s difficult to tell which way Bud Foster may lean. The offensive line for Virginia is big, led by certain first-rounder OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, but vulnerable in spots; Hagans must usually create offense on the move. UVa RBs Wali Lundy and Jason Snelling will make some headway, as did Maryland and BC’s running attacks; the question is whether they can do so consistently and do so in the red zone. The success of the passing attack will be decided behind the line of scrimmage; Virginia’s big receivers will be allowed some room to operate by the Tech secondary until play reaches the red zone.

This game could easily go either way; how each team looks in the first quarter will decide a lot. No matter what happens, it’ll be a good show.