VT-Miami Preview

The eyes of the college football world are focused on Blacksburg, Virginia this weekend as the #3 Virginia Tech Hokies (8-0, 5-0 ACC) host the #5 Miami Hurricanes (6-1, 3-1 ACC) at 7:45 PM Saturday night (ESPN/XM 192). ESPN has brought the full might of its media machine to town, broadcasting ESPN2’s Cold Pizza morning show from Blacksburg on Friday morning, College Gameday on Saturday morning, the radio GameDay all day long on Saturday, and even running a game-long feed from the quarterback’s-view Skycam (paired with the regular commentators’ audio) on ESPNU.

Hype aside, this is the most-anticipated game of the year short of the Rose Bowl, as pre-season commentators pointed to it as a potential national championship semifinal. Many Hokie fans point to Tech’s first-ever win over Miami, in 1995, as the true launch of this program to its current national status. That game began a 5-year Hokie winning streak, aided by Miami’s probation handed down later in that 1995 season. Conversely, Miami capped its resurgence in 2000 with a resounding win over the Hokies with Michael Vick hobbled by a Pittsburgh ankle twist, and then knocked out two more consecutive wins: 26-24 in 2001 with the Hokies giving them their best challenge of the year despite a 4-for-20 from QB Grant Noel, then a 56-45 shootout in 2002. The Hokies turned it around 31-7 in 2003 with one of the most electric wins in Virginia Tech history, then knocked the Hurricanes off last year 16-10 in a de facto ACC championship game. Since 1995, the Hokies have never feared Miami, and Tech’s refusal to give Miami what the Canes view as their due deference has created one of the truly nasty rivalries of the past decade.

Let’s break this one down. HOKIES ON OFFENSE

Both teams’ offenses will be facing the toughest challenge of their year, as the defenses are essentially tied for tops in the nation (VT and Miami trade 1 and 2 spots in scoring defense and total defense). Tech’s running back situation has marginally improved, with Cedric Humes and Mike Imoh both putting up good numbers in their most recent games. The best running back on the team still appears to be sophomore Branden Ore, but a goal-line fumble versus Boston College likely ended his chances of breaking through the coaching staff’s loyalty to seniors. The offense is balanced with a large stable of WRs, plus senior TE Jeff King.

The danger point is red-zone conversion, against a broadly solid Miami defense. Tech showed difficulty against Maryland and continued with such against BC; in those games plus at WVU, the Hokies didn’t pull away until superior personnel, conditioning and depth wore the opposing defense down in the fourth quarter. That’s not likely to happen against Miami, talented as always; the Hurricanes are more likely to get frustrated and emotional than physically beaten. Capitalizing on red-zone possessions early could break this game open for Tech; conversely, getting stuck with field goals or losing possession could build Miami’s confidence if their offense can convert.

HURRICANES ON OFFENSE

Sophomore Kyle Wright won the pre-season battle and has matured into a serviceable college quarterback as the season progressed, with a 58.5% completion rate, 1383 yards in 7 games (average of 198/game) and 10 TDs to 8 INTs; he is not a running threat. The Canes hit teams high and low: their top receiving threats are sophomore TE Greg Olsen, 6’6”/247 pounds, and senior WR Sinorice Moss at 5’8”/182. Their offense, though, is mostly reliant on junior RB Tyrone Moss, who only averages 19 carries a game for 96 yards, but does have 12 TDs in 7 games. This is not a traditional high-flying Miami offense; they may get there next year, but right now Wright’s inexperience holds them back.

That’s a bad thing coming into Lane Stadium for a night game against this Hokie defense. Teams have looked for a weak spot all season, but have yet to find it. Jimmy Williams, despite his generally infuriating habit of waving his arms to pump the crowd up on every single play, has been burned perhaps twice all season, and the Hokies have strangled four good offenses in the past six weeks. The DL and linebackers have been as good as advertised, and senior Justin Hamilton has turned into a key piece at strong safety despite converting from offense only this year.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Call this even. While Miami’s kicking game is questionable, with K Jon Peattie only averaging 64% this year, PR Devin Hester has been astounding for the better part of two years, and the Hurricanes have gotten blocks when they needed them (particularly against North Carolina last week to begin the comeback). Conversely, Hokie placekicking has been solid and punting spectacular (although opposing teams are catching on to Nic Schmitt and Roland Minor’s one-two act by holding Minor at the line), but returning and kick blocking have been mediocre to absent. It’s easy to suspect that the Hokies are living on their kick-blocking reputation at this point; one hopes that they’ve been holding block schemes back for this game, but we have no evidence of such.

IN SUMMARY

When I began this article, I wrote the following sentence as a jumping-off point for my summary: “The difference between these teams, at this point in the season, comes down to the ability of Florida State’s kicker to make a clutch field goal for once.” I’m not sure I believe that anymore. Miami is talented, but I think that despite the odd offensive struggle, Tech has been more dominant over the past month against tougher competition.

Were this game in the Orange Bowl, perhaps it could be a push. But it’s in Lane, it’s at night, and Kyle Wright is a sophomore. It shouldn’t be a big win, but I’ll take the Hokies.