Braves-Nats: Richmond in the Balance

As highlighted by Eric at Off Wing, Basil at Nationals Inquirer (based out of my old stomping grounds in Midlothian, VA) noted Monday that the Atlanta Braves just signed a radio deal with Richmond’s WRNL-AM 910, to complement their AAA farm team in Richmond and its deal with WXGI-AM 950. He points out that this is the first time in ages that the A-Braves have appeared on Richmond radio, and wonders if they’re not trying to protect the Virginia capital, just 90 miles south of the new kids in the NL East, as Braves country.

I think Basil at NI is one shrewd guy. Little by little, Richmond is becoming a DC exurb, and it’s only natural that they will eventually view the Nationals as their home team, similar to the Carolina Panthers’ takeover of the entire state of North Carolina despite major protests in eastern NC when the team was launched and displaced the Redskins from the NFC’s TV deal. Pre-Nats, Virginia outside the 703 area code has historically leaned slightly more toward the Braves than the Orioles, especially since the early ’90s when Atlanta started winning. So Atlanta has quite a bit to lose here, hence the territorial play.

The next catch is that Atlanta and the Richmond Metropolitan Authority have been locked in a 3-4 year battle over the R-Braves’ future in the city. The Diamond, built in 1985, isn’t really a bad park (other than the drainage problem last summer), it just suffers from being one of the last built before the post-Camden Yards revolution in baseball stadium design. Atlanta has made veiled threats to move the team if their demands for a new or heavily renovated stadium aren’t met, using ex-AA Greenville, SC as an object lesson. But now with the Nats 90 miles north, the RMA has a trump card: if the A-Braves won’t be reasonable, the RMA can just dial 202.

So what would happen if the stadium negotiations broke down in Richmond, and Atlanta pulled out? I think the Nats would try to move in, but (a) they’d need to either buy the Richmond IL franchise off Atlanta, or (b) convince another IL franchise to move. Their current AAA affiliate is Pacific Coast League New Orleans, which is a new deal signed after Houston’s AA Texas League affiliate, the Round Rock Express (near Austin), promoted itself into the PCL by purchasing/moving the Edmonton franchise formerly affiliated with the Expos/Nats; that club isn’t moving east.

So where might the Richmond Nationals come from? How about Ottawa? The Lynx, who joined the IL in its 1993 expansion, have struggled for the past five years to meet AAA attendance standards. They’d like to move; the problem is, there’s simply nowhere attractive to move to outside Atlanta’s market area. Were the A-Braves to vacate Richmond, that problem would be solved in a big way; the Nats, meanwhile, would finish off Eastern Canadian baseball for good.

Atlanta’s primary rumored target for the R-Braves franchise has been Macon, Georgia, where they’d somehow engineer construction of a new stadium. But why move all the way down to GA (which they own anyway), and open up the Carolinas to the Nats as well? The Durham Bulls were Atlanta affiliates for 18 years in the High-A Carolina League before they were expanded into the IL in 1998 and had to sign on with Tampa Bay; if Atlanta were willing to abandon their ownership of the AAA club, Durham would be a very attractive location. Other than that, they might stand an outside shot at dislodging the Mets from Norfolk, but I wouldn’t put any money on that one.

How come all the interesting stuff only starts happening in Richmond after I leave?