Madrid: Good News, Bad News
I’ll reverse the usual order and go with the good news first: Paul heard from his friend Alina, and she’s fine.
The rest of today’s news from Madrid isn’t so good for us here in the States. The Socialist opposition won today’s Spanish general election, defeating current prime minister Jose Maria Aznar’s Popular Party. The presumptive new PM, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, was an outspoken opponent of Spain’s alliance with the U.S. and Britain to participate in last year’s Iraq war. The Socialists’ victory was not expected before Thursday’s attacks.
I’ll leave the Spanish political analysis to those more knowledgeable. But consider what just happened from the perspective of al-Qaeda: they executed a major terrorist attack three days before an election, and the side less likely to directly confront them promptly pulled off an upset win. The implication for this October in the U.S. should be pretty obvious.
And it doesn’t matter that such an attack might well backfire in the American political environment (especially if Kerry has managed to turn the discourse away from national security), just like it doesn’t matter whether or not the Madrid attack was intended to achieve this political end. I don’t expect sophisticated American political analysis from al-Qaeda, and a successful attack would appeal to them no matter what the timing. But the possibility (in their mind) of a Democratic victory, with the attendant retreat from corners of the globe where we are currently forcing them to expend resources merely to survive, might be enough to highlight the last week of October on the calendar.
Be wary if Bush-Kerry is a 10-point race by then.
14 March 2004 / 6 Comments / Tags: politics